NOAA Forecasts 55% Chance of Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Amid El Niño Onset

Forecasters warn that a developing 'Superniño' climate pattern is altering probability models for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with elevated risk of tropical cyclone activity. While no specific storms have yet materialized, the shift in seasonal forecasting has direct implications for property, energy offshore, marine cargo, and reinsurance pricing across the Atlantic basin.

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NOAA has forecast a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting 8-14 named storms with 3-6 hurricanes and 1-3 major hurricanes, citing El Niño development as a suppressing factor. This seasonal outlook is relevant to London market underwriters as it informs aggregate exposure modeling and renewal pricing for property, energy, and reinsurance books exposed to the Caribbean hurricane zone. No specific storm events, named assets, or loss estimates are involved; this is a probabilistic seasonal forecast only.

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TSR and the UK Met Office have issued updated forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, both predicting below-normal activity with TSR now calling for 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane — approximately 40% below the 1991-2020 climatology. While forecasts are broadly benign, forecasters caution that El Niño strength and Atlantic sea surface temperature uncertainties could affect storm intensification. As Artemis notes, a single major landfalling storm can still drive significant losses to insurance, reinsurance, cat bond, and ILS markets regardless of seasonal forecasts.

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US federal scientists (NOAA) have forecast a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting 8 to 14 named storms with winds of 39mph or more. The milder outlook is attributed to a developing El Niño pattern in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The forecast was issued days before the official start of hurricane season on 1 June. The announcement was accompanied by warnings that the US is underprepared due to staffing cuts under the Trump administration.

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NOAA has released its first forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, projecting a 55% chance of below-normal activity driven by the anticipated development of El Niño conditions. The agency forecasts 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes (Category 3+), with 70% confidence in these ranges. Despite the subdued outlook, NOAA cautions that El Niño-related jet stream shifts could steer storms toward the US mid-Atlantic coast, increasing storm surge risk. The article notes that even a below-normal season poses significant risk to insurance, reinsurance, cat bond, and ILS markets if a single major storm makes landfall in a high-value area.

NOAA's National Weather Service forecasts 8 to 14 named tropical storms, with 3 to 6 hurricanes, and between 1 and 3 intense hurricanes of Category 3 strength or greater... a 55% chance of a below-normal season. It only takes one major storm to make landfall in a region with high economic and insured values for there to be significant impacts to the insurance, reinsurance, catastrophe bond and ILS markets.

Source: Artemis (ILS/Cat bonds) (Trade Media) · View source