RiskEvents
ClosedMedium impactAI Generated

NOAA Forecasts 55% Chance of Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Amid El Niño Onset

Occurred 1 Jun 2026·Detected 21 May 2026·
🇺🇸 Atlantic Basin, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and US East/Gulf Coasts7 reportsEnded 1 Jun 2026
Natural CatastrophePropertyMarine CargoEnergyCasualty & Liability

NOAA has released its first forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, projecting a 55% chance of below-normal activity driven by the anticipated development of El Niño conditions. The agency forecasts 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes (Category 3+), with 70% confidence in these ranges. Despite the subdued outlook, NOAA cautions that El Niño-related jet stream shifts could steer storms toward the US mid-Atlantic coast, increasing storm surge risk. The article notes that even a below-normal season poses significant risk to insurance, reinsurance, cat bond, and ILS markets if a single major storm makes landfall in a high-value area.

AI-generated from linked source reports. See our correction policy.

Impact verdict

Medium impact. While the forecast indicates a below-normal season, NOAA and industry sources emphasise that a single landfalling major hurricane in a high-value area could produce significant insured losses affecting property, reinsurance, and ILS markets. The below-normal outlook moderates but does not eliminate risk.

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Geographic Zone Matches

2 active matches

  • OFAC Sanctioned Countries
    Rule-basedConfidence 100%
  • TRIA Certified Areas
    Rule-basedConfidence 100%

Geographic zone matches are RiskEvents spatial/analytical indicators, not coverage determinations or Lloyd's official classifications.

Affected countries

🇦🇳 Antigua and Barbuda🇧🇧 Barbados🇧🇷 British Virgin Islands🇧🇸 Bahamas🇨🇺 Cuba🇩🇲 Dominica🇩🇴 Dominican Republic🇬🇩 Grenada

+8 more

Lloyd's classifications

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