Three tankers hit in Strait of Hormuz amid US revocation of Iranian oil licence

Impact verdict

Low impact. Loss pathway: Kinetic damage to three tankers in the world's most critical oil chokepoint could generate aggregate hull, cargo, and war risk losses in the USD 100m–1bn class through hull repairs/replacements, cargo loss (likely crude or product), liability exposure, and potential war risk additional premiums. Evidence: Three tankers reported hit with casualties, which approaches multi-vessel loss territory; the Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global oil shipments, meaning any sustained disruption concentrates significant insured values across hull, cargo, and P&I policies. Limit: Without confirmed total losses, vessel values, flag states, or insured values, the band is held at MEDIUM rather than HIGH; escalation to HIGH would require confirmation of total losses of large tankers (VLCCs valued at USD 80–100m each) plus significant cargo and business interruption exposure. Impact downgraded to LOW by deterministic London Market impact gate. Gate note: the source does not evidence a concrete London Market loss pathway such as named insured asset damage, port/waterway/airspace closure, vessel/cargo loss, sanctions asset action, claims/loss estimate, or market pricing impact.